Lead Based on the analysis the living room of the revolution, it analyzes the impact of future TV development of several key technologies, including mobile Internet, multi-screen, big data, cloud computing, networking and so on; and finally summarize the above factors affecting the future development of television trend.
The PC Internet generated at the end of the last century was mainly influenced by the study. The mobile Internet era, which originated in the second decade of the 21st century, was a revolution in the mobile revolution and the living room.
The living room revolution is the subversion of the Internet to the traditional television ecology. The ecological chain of traditional TVs is a closed industrial chain composed of content producers, broadcaster TV stations, transmission channel cable networks and advertising companies. The development of the Internet has subverted this ecological chain, mainly reflected in the restructuring of the industrial chain, and the new Participants enter and extend new business models.
The main feature of the living room revolution is "cross-border integration." This cross-border and integration is mainly reflected in the integration of industrial participants: the original closed industrial chain was broken, communications, television manufacturing, terminal manufacturers, video sites have entered the television industry. Although the General Administration of Radio, Film, and Television (SARFT) manages through licenses, the door to open has already been opened.
The living room revolution originated in the diversification of transmission channels, which is the â€œubiquitousâ€ of video, and it is divided into two phases.
The first stage is the popularity of IPTV. The IPTV launched by radio and television operators represented by Shanghai BesTV first poses a challenge to the monopolization status of the wired network in the living room. The rapid development of IPTV has resulted in the successful listing of Shanghai BesTV in the capital market, and it has become a nationwide new media company for broadcasting and TV; at the same time, IPTV has forced local radio and television group and the headquarters to be beaten with each other in the transmission channel, forming a transmission. The "co-occurrence" pattern of channels.
The second stage is the emergence of OTT TV: The biggest impact of Internet TV on TV distribution channels is the pipeline, OTT. What is OTT? The term Over-The-Top (OTT) is derived from the "over-the-top pass" of basketball, emphasizing the irrelevance of services and physical networks. OTT TV refers to a video service based on the open Internet and covering various terminals, that is, the integration of IP video and Internet applications transmitted through multiple terminals for the public Internet, such as television. In the early days of OTT TV, the terminal was mainly a PC. The video site for PC users should be regarded as an early form of OTT TV. With the development of multi-screen technology, OTT terminals have been expanded to televisions (including Internet TVs or STBs + TVs). , computers, PADs, smart phones, etc. In terms of the characteristics of the Internet, IPTV has a transitional nature, and Internet TV OTT TV will certainly replace IPTV. The emergence of OTT TV completely broke the monopoly of television transmission channels, making the television industry begin to move from closed gardens to the blue ocean of the Internet. Accompanied by the OTT singing all the way, the living room revolution really arrived.
For traditional broadcasters, the opportunities and challenges brought about by the revolution in the living room coexist.
In terms of opportunities, the revolution in the living room has enabled the industry to begin to grow from the closed sunset industry. OTT, with its Internet features, brings new business models and operating models, making it possible for traditional broadcast and television organizations to successfully transition to national new media companies with Internet genes. Typical mango TVs such as Shanghai SMG, Hangzhou Huashu, Hunan Broadcasting and Television may win.
But for most radio and television organizations, the challenges may be greater than the opportunities. The first is the transformation of the business that cable operators are faced with after they are pipelined; in addition, they are beginning to face competition from new entrants such as video sites in terms of content production; in terms of business models, the relationship between traditional 4A companies, data companies and TV stations is iron triangle. It will be broken and TV stations will find it difficult to continue to grow; in terms of terminals and users, "audiences" will become "users." The massive emergence of OTT boxes began to rob traditional audiences. Once the traditional TV loses users and terminals, it will lose control of the downstream TV industry chain and will become a content producer.
Second, technology that affects the future of television
With the rapid development of technologies such as mobile Internet and cloud computing, the technology environment on which television relies has undergone tremendous changes. From the perspective of cloud, management, and end-point, cloud production and storage, internetization of transmission channels, and terminals Intelligent and multi-screen.
(a) Mobile Internet
In 2007, iPhone unveiled the prelude of the mobile Internet development trend with the â€œre-invention of mobile phoneâ€ attitude. In the second decade of the 21st century, we have entered the mobile Internet era. According to eMarketer data, by the end of 2013, the global mobile Internet users will reach 1.9 billion people, which will account for 73% of all Internet users. In the next few years, the growth rate of mobile Internet users will still lead the overall growth of Internet users. China has more than 464 million mobile Internet users, and the number and penetration rate of mobile Internet users ranks first in the world. Mobile phones have surpassed computers and become the largest Internet access device.
Mobile Internet is gradually changing from the extension of the PC Internet to a new Internet form, subverting the traditional Internet model. Kevin Kelly, the founder of the Wired Magazine and the out-of-control author, pointed out not too long ago that the term "mobilization" will no longer be used from now to the next decade. It will end this word because it will become "the air we breathe." , become a natural thing." Everything will be mobile in the next ten years, and the current mobilization is still slow.
Mobile Internet has accelerated the development of social media. The socialization trend of the Internet has subverted the interaction between people and people and between people and information. It has changed the mode of information transmission. It has accelerated the infiltration of politics, economy, society and culture. The Internet is promoting the development and transformation of social forms. .
With the intelligentization of mobile terminals and the development of 4G networks, the foundation for the next phase of mobile applications has been laid. Future applications will enter the multi-terminal multi-screen era. One application will be distributed on multiple terminal platforms simultaneously, and data exchange will make the user experience smoother.
"Multi-screen", also known as "multi-screen", begins with the "net interaction" of a video site. This cooperative relationship has spread to the "fourth screen" beyond mobile phones, tablets, and PCs. TV screen. We have entered the multi-screen era. At present, the four main screens are TV screens, PC screens, mobile screens, and flat screens. Flat screens are the product of personal computers and are also the product of mobile phones. "Multi-screen linkage" has become an important entry point for triple play. Currently, there are many problems in the convergence of cable networks, telecommunications networks, and the Internet, such as policy and system level. The move from the mobile Internet field and the â€œmulti-screen strategyâ€ will be a very good opportunity for network convergence.
(III) Big Data
Since 2013, the term "big data" has become more and more hot. Big data is another disruptive technological change in the IT industry following cloud computing and the Internet of Things. It was called â€œnew oilâ€ by former Amazon chief scientist Andreas Weigend. Big Data will bring profound changes to the big video industry including television, including industry ecology, content production methods, content value criteria and business models.
In the upstream content production field, the content production model is changed from the traditional B2C model to the C2B model. We understand the user's preferences, interest points, and user behavior to customize the content, and truly provide what the user wants to see. This explains why both domestic and foreign video sites have entered the original content field. The author of the era of big data, Victor Meyer Schonberg, believes that a large amount of data enables traditional industries to better understand customer needs and provide personalized services.
In the field of content production, the earliest foreign children's programs produced using big data are Sesame Street and Teletubbies. Another case is the solitaire house of American Netflix. In China, LeTV has established LeTV, and Shanda Literature has also established a screenwriting company, relying on "big data" to create television scripts. C2B: The standardized products in the industrial era have become increasingly difficult to satisfy the critical eyes and needs of current consumers. The C2B personalized customization of standard products has become a new trend and trend.
In the downstream ratings assessment stage, as the video operator has mastered the massive and accurate user and viewing data, the originally controversial sample sampling model has become obsolete. Although advertisers believe that the authenticity of Nielsen and Suffolk, but also began to gradually adopt the operator's accurate data. The sample data market of Nielsen and Sofori will gradually shrink, and the data market will move from a sampling model to an accurate model.
Another area downstream is the advertising market that is closely related to viewing data. Traditional TV is the creator of the free business model, which provides viewers with free programs, then uses the audience's attention in exchange for advertisers to put in, and obtains advertising revenue. In the process, ratings become a common exchange currency for all parties. However, the application of big data will completely change this business model. The traditional ratings are questioned, and the iron triangle relationship formed by advertisers, television stations, and data vendors for many years will also be broken.
In the era of big data, data mining is destined to be a killer application for video operators, including television stations. Whoever really gets the basic data and business development capabilities of big data will occupy a high position in the next round of development. For TV stations, establishing and improving the strategic position of the data department, shifting from extensive management to sophisticated management, and using the Internet's thinking to operate television are the only choices for dealing with competition.
(D) Cloud Computing
The second industrial revolution was essentially the industrial revolution brought about by electricity. The most important change 100 years ago was the transformation of electricity into a common utility, which led to the development of productivity in the entire society. Cloud computing means that at any time and anywhere, as long as the Internet is connected, there is a provision of computing power. How much you need to use, how much to use, this is cloud computing. Cloud computing began to become the basic service facility of the society like electricity and oil.
In the media field, an important application area of â€‹â€‹cloud computing is animation production. During the Spring Festival in 2014, the 3D animation giant bear came from Shenzhen Huaqiang Group. What is the core competitiveness of this company? Nothing more than a lot of animation production staff and heavy equipment investment. Animation relies on creativity, but it depends more on equipment investment and capital investment. The bigger companies have this advantage, the smaller startup team has no way to turn ideas into a relatively high quality product. In the future, taking technology as the guide and implementing the concept of â€œculture + science and technologyâ€, it is expected to become an important path for the animation and film industry to go global.
(5) Internet of Things
Mobile Internet has freed people from restrictions on time and space, can access the Internet anytime, anywhere, and has realized the seamless link between people and information, and the development of the Internet of Things will promote the connection of information, people and things, especially on-board intelligent platforms. Smart wearable devices such as smart TVs, smart homes, and even Google Glass may all become part of the Internet of Things. Application of multi-platform-based Internet of Things will become an important force in the development of the Internet of Things.
The Internet of Things allows the integration of the real world with the virtual world and all items become intelligent. When everything starts networking, the original value creation system will suffer.
The Internet of Things has further aggravated the ubiquity of video and video has become ubiquitous. As a provider of video, TV stations will have more channels for distribution and terminals. At the same time, TV is also facing a major video ecology change.
In the era of mobile Internet, despite the prosperity of Star TV entertainment represented by Hunan and Jiangsu, the TV industry is generally filled with a pessimistic argument that TV is about to disappear. The main reason for this view is that the operating rate of TV has started to drop dramatically in recent years. At present, young users are getting farther and farther away from television. The main reasons for this are the current lack of user experience in television, the lack of selective television content, the ease with which programs are received passively, and the lack of man-machine interaction. Will TV still exist in the future?
In fact, the operating rate only represents the market trend of live TV. For the entire TV industry, the TV screen will not die out. The institutions that provide content for TV or provide continuous video will not die. For a long time to come, the television screen should still exist in the living room for a long time. The content provider and broadcaster of the TV station will also exist. Of course, it will face a decline in market share, but will this type of live TV continue to occupy the future? Mainstream, yet to be observed.
First of all, TV is a symbol of family. TV emphasizes three â€œbeingsâ€: presence, online, and on-air. This is irreplaceable by other forms of media. For example, â€œon-the-spot communicationâ€ creates a time-space-synchronized physical field for audiences. Get the psychological feeling of being in the rich information field.
Second, the consumption of television programs or video is also increasing. Due to the impact of online video, the operating rate of televisions is declining and the audience rating is also declining. However, this data currently measures the data of live TV based on user samples and cannot be measured for on-demand, IPTV and Internet TV. In fact, with the "ubiquitousness" of video and the increase of screens, the consumption of video is increasing rapidly, and the video market is also expanding.
Chinaâ€™s aging society is also accelerating. As we all know, the users in front of Chinese televisions are mainly elderly people and children. For traditional television, this is a huge market.
In addition, TV, as a mass media, also has strong public-good attributes and political attributes, so its life cycle is not completely equal to the market-based media.
TVs in the next 5 to 10 years may have the following characteristics:
Firstly, products and services are gradually diversified. In addition to the traditional form of live video, it also includes various functions such as on-demand, interactive, social networking, games, e-commerce, and Internet access, enabling multi-screen linkage and multi-channel distribution.
Display technology changes. As OLED technology matures and its size increases, TVs can be rolled up in the future; projection technology is also developing. With the popularity of projection, the projection light source can now meet the needs of high-definition and ultra-high definition, and may be used later. The device is projected and the wall will be the display.
The breakthrough of human-computer interaction technology and the improvement of user experience are the key to the future of television. In the future, television will shift from device-centric to user-centric. The key to the success of the Apple iPad is to have a good user experience. There is basically no learning cost, and the elderly and children can get started. The human-computer interaction technology of smart TVs includes various forms such as voice, camera, and somatosensory.
Multi-screen interaction is the future development trend. The future application scenario will be a fusion mode of living room TVs and mobile terminals, enabling a seamless transition experience for multiple screens. With the development of mobile Internet, TV will become the main manifestation of the entire mobile network economy and mobile intelligent terminal industry. The intelligentization of mobile terminals and the intelligentization of television terminals will promote each other and promote each other. Only in this way can they be better integrated and integrated.
The user's center may be transferred to the smartphone. All future user experience starts with mobile phones, and television becomes a better video display terminal. User experience, privacy, and accompanying types are important reasons. Products with good user experience, such as mobile phones and iPads, can be closely related to daily life. Mobile terminals will become the entrance of video, and personalization, fragmentation and mobilization will bring about great development of the video industry.
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